ADBE options

The fiscal Q4 report in December is the catalyst. It lands days after the new chief executive takes over on December 1 and carries the first fiscal 2027 guidance. The leading indicators point down. Net new ARR fell to roughly $400 million in Q3 from about $640 million a year earlier, a drop of about 36%. Remaining performance obligations declined quarter over quarter to $22.16 billion, the first second-to-third-quarter decline in the eight years Adobe has disclosed the figure, while revenue grew 13% against 8% backlog growth. The Q3 call was held with an interim CFO. Adobe paused planned price increases over the summer and shifted toward freemium distribution, a move that defers monetization to defend the user base ahead of the December guide. The stock has bounced about 24% off its August low of $190 to $236, and that recovery rests on raised fiscal 2026 targets rather than any fix for the fiscal 2027 pipeline. The June 2027 put covers the December, March, and June reports and pays if the bounce unwinds and the stock trades back below 220 toward its August lows. Main risk: Adobe crossed 1 billion monthly active users and grew AI-first ARR more than 150% year over year, and a fiscal 2027 guide that monetizes that base above expectations would re-rate the stock upward and leave the put near zero.