Options brief, Oct 8, 2026

This is a thesis update on the open bullish MU call. Micron reported record fiscal Q4 results on September 30, with revenue of $54.23 billion against $11.32 billion a year earlier, non-GAAP EPS of $33.42, and guidance of $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion for the current quarter, about 8% above the $57 billion consensus. Management expects fiscal 2027 to be another record year as AI demand tightens memory and storage supply. Samsung's preliminary Q3 release this week put operating profit near 107.4 trillion won, roughly nine times the year-ago level, and Seoul Economic Daily reports DRAM prices up 20% quarter over quarter on 3% shipment growth, memory margins at 76%, and broker estimates of another 47% profit jump across memory makers next year. The stock closed near $1,081, about 14% below its 52-week high of $1,255, and it barely moved on either print. Thirty-day implied volatility is 51% with an IV rank of 6.5, near the bottom of its one-year range, so the June 2027 call buys the December and March earnings reports at unusually cheap option pricing. The 1100 strike goes in the money on a 2% move and pays if the stock returns to its high. DA Davidson set a $3,000 target this week. Main risk: memory cycles turn fast. Micron guided fiscal Q1 gross margin lower, and with beta above 2, a DRAM or HBM pricing rollover in 2027 would send the stock down faster than the market and leave the call worthless.

The fiscal Q4 report in December is the catalyst. It lands days after the new chief executive takes over on December 1 and carries the first fiscal 2027 guidance. The leading indicators point down. Net new ARR fell to roughly $400 million in Q3 from about $640 million a year earlier, a drop of about 36%. Remaining performance obligations declined quarter over quarter to $22.16 billion, the first second-to-third-quarter decline in the eight years Adobe has disclosed the figure, while revenue grew 13% against 8% backlog growth. The Q3 call was held with an interim CFO. Adobe paused planned price increases over the summer and shifted toward freemium distribution, a move that defers monetization to defend the user base ahead of the December guide. The stock has bounced about 24% off its August low of $190 to $236, and that recovery rests on raised fiscal 2026 targets rather than any fix for the fiscal 2027 pipeline. The June 2027 put covers the December, March, and June reports and pays if the bounce unwinds and the stock trades back below 220 toward its August lows. Main risk: Adobe crossed 1 billion monthly active users and grew AI-first ARR more than 150% year over year, and a fiscal 2027 guide that monetizes that base above expectations would re-rate the stock upward and leave the put near zero.