Options brief, Sep 28, 2026

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told ByteDance, Alibaba, and other firms it intends to approve purchases of Nvidia's RTX Pro 5500, The Information reported on September 27, and ByteDance alone is weighing an order of about one million units. CryptoBriefing estimates the card could ship 500,000 units per quarter, roughly $26 billion a year. Management excludes China revenue from guidance, so a confirmed approval adds sales that are absent from current numbers. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US-China trade truce was extended to January 10, which lowers the odds of a policy reversal inside this window. NVDA's IV rank sits at 3.4, near the bottom of its own range, so the calls are cheap. Earnings fall on November 18, inside the window, and the last comparable print was a beat with raised guidance. Main risk is that Reuters could not verify The Information's report, and a workstation card is a small piece of the data-center business, so the re-entry could prove smaller than the market prices. Beta of 2.25 means a broad selloff would hit the position hard.

This reverses the standing bullish call. Oracle sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl's STACK Infrastructure unit on Project Jupiter, its $165 billion, 2.45-gigawatt New Mexico campus, after the site's gas pipeline permit slipped to February 2027. The notice gives Oracle contractual cover to defer rent if the site misses 2028 and puts delay risk on lenders holding about $18 billion of project debt. The problem extends past one campus. Oracle reported $664 billion of remaining performance obligations in its fiscal first quarter against about 1.2 gigawatts delivered, its filings show roughly $288 billion of data-center leases not yet commenced, and fiscal 2026 capex ran 83% of revenue. Seeking Alpha estimates about half the backlog is tied to the OpenAI ecosystem, and the 10-year yield at a 19-year high near 5.09% raises the financing cost on every new site. The stock has fallen from a $322.54 high to $135.40. Put IV rank sits at 21.8, so downside protection is cheap, and Oracle's fiscal second-quarter report, due in December, lands inside the window. Main risk is that Jupiter is one site among many, and recent quarters brought large OpenAI-linked bookings that could squeeze the stock back toward $160. Loss is capped at the premium.

DeepMind chief Koray Kavukcuoglu said Gemini 4 is in early post-training and targeted for release well before year-end, The Information reported. Google Cloud grew 82% year over year in the July quarter with demand outpacing supply, yet the stock closed at $342.59, about 16% below its $408.61 high, while Meta added roughly a third to its price in a month around its Muse launch. A credible Gemini 4 launch would close the model gap with Anthropic and OpenAI and pull a fresh round of token demand into Cloud. Options are cheap for the setup, with an IV percentile of 21.7 and rank of 42.9, and earnings on November 4 fall inside the window. Liquidity is rated 4 and beta is 1.21, so the position is tradable with moderate drawdown risk. Main risk is execution. Forkast notes Google's current frontier model trails Anthropic's Opus 5.5 by 40% on the Intelligence Index, and a capex guide raised to $205 billion has drawn sell-offs even after strong prints. A soft launch leaves the calls worthless.